A Quote by Amanda Ripley
The public totally discounts low-probability high-consequence events. The individual says, it's not going to be this plane, this bus, this time.
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If zero percent of the elites support something, very low chance it's going to pass, if 100% support something, very high chance it's going to pass. Same thing for organized interest groups. But for the average voter, it's a flat line. Which says it doesn't matter whether zero percent of the public believes something or 100% of the average voters believe something - it doesn't affect the probability that that thing will be enacted.
Even very low-probability events can, and indeed do, occur.
Among all the occurrences possible in the universe the a priori probability of any particular one of them verges upon zero. Yet the universe exists; particular events must take place in it, the probability of which (before the event) was infinitesimal. At the present time we have no legitimate grounds for either asserting or denying that life got off to but a single start on earth, and that, as a consequence, before it appeared its chances of occurring were next to nil. ... Destiny is written concurrently with the event, not prior to it.
The issue, as correctly emphasized by Carl Sagan, is the probability of the evolution of high intelligence and an electronic civilization on an inhabited world. Once we have life (and almost surely it will be very different from life on Earth), what is the probability of its developing a lineage with high intelligence? On Earth, among millions of lineages of organisms and perhaps 50 billion speciation events, only one led to high intelligence; this makes me believe in its utter improbability.
The income men derive from producing things of slight consequence is of great consequence. The production reflects the low marginal utility of the goods to society. The income reflects the high total utility of a livelihood to a person.
I'm totally not media shy and do interviews all the time and go to events and totally play along and actually enjoy talking to journalists most of the time.
Okay, I'm going to let you in on a little secret: I'm a very superstitious person. I'm walking onto the plane as we speak. I'm putting my hands on the outside of the plane and my feet are on the lip of the plane. I have to do it every time before I fly.
Failure saves lives. In the airline industry, every time a plane crashes the probability of the next crash is lowered by that.
I have a little pocket Bible that I have with me all the time in my briefcase, and so usually in the mornings, sometimes on the campaign bus or plane, I always try to catch some time to do that regularly.
The AARP is a group of 3.8 million Americans bound together by a common love of airline discounts and insurance discounts.
The chief problem with the individual investor: He or she typically buys when the market is high and thinks it's going to go up, and sells when the market is low and thinks it's going to go down.
It is safer to try to understand the low in the light of the high than the high in the light of the low. In doing the latter one necessarily distorts the high, whereas in doing the former one does not deprive the low of the freedom to reveal itself as fully as what it is.
The risk of a business being hit by a low probability, high impact event is far higher than most boards realize because the number of potential wild cards is so great.
Some time ago we heard a strange story. The pilot of a small plane said that he had been caught in a one hundred fifty mile gale, which held his plane perfectly still. The motor was roaring, he claimed, but the plane was not moving. "It was weird," he said , "to be going one hundred fifty miles an hour and yet not be going anywhere at all."
The only bus tours to political events I ever went on with my father were when he was running for president. Why else would you be touring the nation in a bus?
They say for every high high there must be a low low low low low
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