A Quote by Edgar Fiedler

If you have to forecast, forecast often.

Edgar Fiedler

Quote Topics

Business Forecast Often

Quote Author

Edgar Fiedler
American - Economist
April 21, 1929 - March 15, 2003

Confidence in a forecast rises with the amount of information that goes into it. But the accuracy of the forecast stays the same.

Dean Williams

I never understand why 'economist makes forecast' is ever a headline. Whether the economist in question is from the International Monetary Fund, a City forecasting group or the Treasury - a forecast is still not news.

Tim Harford

Economists have allowed themselves to walk into a trap where we say we can forecast, but no serious economist thinks we can. You don't expect dentists to be able to forecast how many teeth you'll have when you're 80. You expect them to give good advice and fix problems.

Tim Harford

Expert estimates of probability are often off by factors of hundreds or thousands. [...] I used to be annoyed when the margin of error was high in a forecasting model that I might put together. Now I view it as perhaps the single most important piece of information that a forecaster provides. When we publish a forecast on FiveThirtyEight, I go to great lengths to document the uncertainty attached to it, even if the uncertainty is sufficiently large that the forecast won't make for punchy headlines.

Nate Silver

Satellite photography in the 1970's gave rise to the long-range weather forecast, a month at a time. This in turn gave rise to the observation that the long-range weather forecast was wrong most of the time. In turn, this gave rise to the dropping of the long-range weather forecast and to the admission that really accurate forecasting could only cover the next day or two, and not always then.

Miles Kington

People who forecast simply because "that's my job," knowing pretty well that their forecast is ineffectual, are not what I would call ethical. What they do is no different from repeating lies simply because "it's my job."

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

The population forecast for the United States in 1970 is 170 million. The population forecast for Russia alone in 1970 is 251 million. The implications are clear.

Emanuel Celler

The Doomsayers have always had their uses, since they trigger the coping mechanism that often prevents the events they forecast.

Walter Wriston

I often find myself listening to the 'Shipping Forecast' on Radio 4. At first, I am usually wondering what time it is, but then, because often I'm on the other side of the bed and I can't be bothered to turn it off, I just listen and it becomes very relaxing.

Grace Chatto

Entrepreneurs can't forecast accurately, because they are trying something fundamentally new. So they will often be laughably behind plan - and on the brink of success.