A Quote by Jon Evans
As hardware doubles its density every 18-24 months, courtesy of Moore's Law, and as software eats the world, technology will replace a broad swathe of jobs outright - from burger-flippers to diagnosticians - and atomize many others from full-time positions into gigs performed by many fungible workers. Tech, in short, will eat jobs.
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Moore's Law - The number of transistors and resistors on a chip doubles every 24 months
A big part of the success of Microsoft was that every year, the chips our software ran on got faster and cheaper. They doubled in capability every 18 months under Moore's law.
To be sure, technology will change what we do. Tasks that are highly manual, routine, and predictable will be automated. But jobs are made up of many tasks. So the nature of existing jobs will change, and new careers will be created.
You know, one of the great things about most renewable technologies - not every technology, but many of them - is the jobs have to be local. When you're talking about a power plant and power generation using solar thermal technology, the jobs will be where the plant is.
Jobs have already started to surge. Since my election, Ford announced it will abandon its plans to build a new factory in Mexico and will instead invest $700 million in Michigan, creating many, many jobs. Fiat/Chrysler announced it will invest $1 billion in Ohio and Michigan creating 2,000 American jobs.
I'm a physicist, and we have something called Moore's Law, which says computer power doubles every 18 months. So every Christmas, we more or less assume that our toys and appliances are more or less twice as powerful as the previous Christmas.
I would point out is that most of the change over the past 5,000 years has been arithmetic, and it now logarithmic. Digitization, the whole Moore's law thing where it doubles every 18 months - that is a speed that is faster than most people are used to.
The job market of the future will consist of those jobs that robots cannot perform. Our blue-collar work is pattern recognition, making sense of what you see. Gardeners will still have jobs because every garden is different. The same goes for construction workers. The losers are white-collar workers, low-level accountants, brokers, and agents.
By 2018, automation is going to be in full swing in the United States and around the world. There are estimates that it could replace 50 percent of our jobs. That is an enormous shift. But even if we go through a phase where we have an unemployment valley from automation, there will be new jobs and new things for us to do.
Many, perhaps most, people who lose their jobs are mistaken about the reason for which they lost their jobs. Some will say that they're failures, others that their boss had it in for them, and others yet that they were sure their career ended because of a stupid faux pas they made at the company picnic.
Technology magnifies differences, and it's been replacing or obviating jobs for a long time. But what happens as that case accelerates? I'm not one of these doomsayers who says, 'There will be no jobs.'
Many upscale American parents somehow think jobs like their own are part of the nation's natural order. They are not. In Europe, they have already discovered that, and many there have accepted the new small-growth, small-jobs reality. Will we?
We should absolutely train up U.K. workers - but it takes time to do that. And the reality is that there are a lot of E.U. workers that come here to do jobs that British-born workers will not do.
Software substitution, whether it's for drivers or waiters or nurses - it's progressing. Technology over time will reduce demand for jobs, particularly at the lower end of skill set.
If cheap immigrant labor is made unavailable, employers can hire Americans at a higher wage, or replace low-wage immigrant workers with technology and automation, which will create a smaller number of skilled jobs for Americans.
I think that solving the job impact of AI will require significant private and public efforts. And I think that many people actually underestimate the impact of AI on jobs. Having said that, I think that if we work on it and provide the skill training needed, then there will be many new jobs created.
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