A Quote by Nate Silver

You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast. — © Nate Silver
You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
Confidence in a forecast rises with the amount of information that goes into it. But the accuracy of the forecast stays the same.
The TV industry works in this crazy system where everybody's trying to get the same actors at the same time.
Instead of trying to specify a system in full detail, specify it only somewhat. You can then ride on the dynamics of the system in the direction you want to go.
What I'm trying to do is to influence all the people I can influence. All those who are still under the dream and just put a big question mark in their mind. The acid dream is over, that is what I'm trying to tell them.
I always go into a game trying to get an assist and trying to get a goal, I want to influence games.
Is it exciting to have a codified identity, which then gets a codified set of rights and recognitions and visibility? Are we supposed to take it from there, within the same system? Or are we trying to upset the table before we want a place at it?
I never understand why 'economist makes forecast' is ever a headline. Whether the economist in question is from the International Monetary Fund, a City forecasting group or the Treasury - a forecast is still not news.
Never make the blunder of trying to forecast the way God is going to answer your prayer.
School is the same as producing: If you want to make it far, there are a million, trillion people trying to do the same thing. If you're not in over-grind mode, it's probably not going to work the way that you want it to.
We're in the same company as 2NE1 and we get our songs from the same producers, so the influence is natural. Since they've done a lot of things before us, we want to emulate them. But at the same time, we hope there will soon be an opportunity to show our own unique color. We want to succeed with our own unique color.
Economists have allowed themselves to walk into a trap where we say we can forecast, but no serious economist thinks we can. You don't expect dentists to be able to forecast how many teeth you'll have when you're 80. You expect them to give good advice and fix problems.
The nature of the new world system was not so different from the old. It was for the moment more stable, but a reasonable forecast would be that Africa in particular had a century of border wars ahead of it.
Satellite photography in the 1970's gave rise to the long-range weather forecast, a month at a time. This in turn gave rise to the observation that the long-range weather forecast was wrong most of the time. In turn, this gave rise to the dropping of the long-range weather forecast and to the admission that really accurate forecasting could only cover the next day or two, and not always then.
Entrepreneurs can't forecast accurately, because they are trying something fundamentally new. So they will often be laughably behind plan - and on the brink of success.
If you have to forecast, forecast often.
You know, when everybody starts to live from their heart, and go for what they want, they don't go for the same things. That's the beauty of this. We don't all want BMWs. We don't all want the same person. We don't all want the same experiences. We don't all want the same clothing. We don't all want ..... fill in the blank
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