Confidence in a forecast rises with the amount of information that goes into it. But the accuracy of the forecast stays the same.
I never understand why 'economist makes forecast' is ever a headline. Whether the economist in question is from the International Monetary Fund, a City forecasting group or the Treasury - a forecast is still not news.
Economists have allowed themselves to walk into a trap where we say we can forecast, but no serious economist thinks we can. You don't expect dentists to be able to forecast how many teeth you'll have when you're 80. You expect them to give good advice and fix problems.
Satellite photography in the 1970's gave rise to the long-range weather forecast, a month at a time. This in turn gave rise to the observation that the long-range weather forecast was wrong most of the time. In turn, this gave rise to the dropping of the long-range weather forecast and to the admission that really accurate forecasting could only cover the next day or two, and not always then.
It's impossible for us to forecast what's going to happen ten years from now and make a decision today to say what we're going to do.
If you have to forecast, forecast often.
People who forecast simply because "that's my job," knowing pretty well that their forecast is ineffectual, are not what I would call ethical. What they do is no different from repeating lies simply because "it's my job."
The population forecast for the United States in 1970 is 170 million. The population forecast for Russia alone in 1970 is 251 million. The implications are clear.
All we have is today. Just live it. We don't know about tomorrow. So, enjoy the day. Love yourself, and spread love around.
Today, with the subject matter that's around politically, and internationally and everything, I think Carl Reiner would have a ball. I think the format should stay the same. I'd sure love to see him dealing with it today.
Expert estimates of probability are often off by factors of hundreds or
thousands. [...] I used to be annoyed when the margin of error was high in
a forecasting model that I might put together. Now I view it as perhaps the
single most important piece of information that a forecaster provides. When
we publish a forecast on FiveThirtyEight, I go to great lengths to document
the uncertainty attached to it, even if the uncertainty is sufficiently
large that the forecast won't make for punchy headlines.
I have always been very comfortable behind a microphone. I love talking about basketball, I love being around people, I love being around the game, the travel and the excitement around the arena.
Whether it's exploring the woods around where I grew up, or even today exploring the coastal habitats and environments where I live in New England, or in a remote wilderness we're featuring in one of my series - I love to be in the field and I love to explore.
Meteorologists have the right perspective. They ground themselves in the current conditions (today’s highs/lows). They briefly acknowledge significant events of the past (record temps). And they keep an eye on the future (five-day forecast). Honor your past accomplishments, live in the present moment, and look to the future.
I only performed a song so I could not write an essay. I just enjoyed being around bands, and around musicians, and, I didn't want to be the girl who followed the band around. I love singing, I love performing, but it's never been this goal.
As far as 'Twilight' goes, I'm in love with my character. I'm in love with the whole series. I love doing the fan conventions around the world, I love to travel. So wherever it fits in, I'd love to continue doing that for the rest of my life. Just meeting the fans who made everything possible from around the world.