Economists have allowed themselves to walk into a trap where we say we can forecast, but no serious economist thinks we can. You don't expect dentists to be able to forecast how many teeth you'll have when you're 80. You expect them to give good advice and fix problems.
Economists have allowed themselves to walk into a trap where we say we can forecast, but no serious economist thinks we can.
I never understand why 'economist makes forecast' is ever a headline. Whether the economist in question is from the International Monetary Fund, a City forecasting group or the Treasury - a forecast is still not news.
Confidence in a forecast rises with the amount of information that goes into it. But the accuracy of the forecast stays the same.
People ask what gives me the authority to give advice? I say, First of all, I don't give advice. Dr Phil gives advice. Mr T helps people. I motivate them, I inspire them, I give them hope, and I plant the seed so they can feel good about themselves
I've had dentists who have wanted to help me out, but I say, 'You know, I won't work again if you fix my teeth.'
Satellite photography in the 1970's gave rise to the long-range weather forecast, a month at a time. This in turn gave rise to the observation that the long-range weather forecast was wrong most of the time. In turn, this gave rise to the dropping of the long-range weather forecast and to the admission that really accurate forecasting could only cover the next day or two, and not always then.
If you have to forecast, forecast often.
People who forecast simply because "that's my job," knowing pretty well that their forecast is ineffectual, are not what I would call ethical. What they do is no different from repeating lies simply because "it's my job."
You can't expect to make all this money and not go through problems. You can't expect God to give you everything you want without taking something away.
The population forecast for the United States in 1970 is 170 million. The population forecast for Russia alone in 1970 is 251 million. The implications are clear.
I do not expect NASA to go out and build settlements and colonies. I do not expect them to give SpaceX all the money needed to colonize Mars. I do not expect them to realize the future of humanity is contingent on harvesting the wealth of the solar system overnight and suddenly subsidize my asteroid mining project.
I don't expect the government to solve my problems, but at least I expect them to understand it.
When you have made evil the means of survival, do not expect men to remain good. Do not expect them to stay moral and lose their lives for the purpose of becoming the fodder of the immoral. Do not expect them to produce, when production is punished and looting rewarded. Do not ask, "Who is destroying the world?" You are.
Give me a one-handed economist! All my economists say, On the one hand on the other.
Are people being the least you expect of them, or the best they expect themselves to be?
The only dating advice I have to offer is: Expect the guys in your life to be kind and respectful. Don't make excuses for garbagey behavior-'Oh, that's just what guys are like.' It isn't true. Expect them to be good, treat them like they're good. And if they're garbagey, move on. Don't let your world get cluttered up with people who think they have some gender-based right to be awful.