A Quote by Daniel Kahneman

A plan is only a scenario, and almost by definition, it is optimistic... As a result, scenario planning can lead to a serious underestimate of the risk of failure.

Daniel Kahneman

Quote Topics

Almost Definition Failure Lead Only Optimistic Plan Planning Result Risk Scenario Serious Underestimate

Quote Author

Daniel Kahneman
Israeli - Psychologist
Born: March 5, 1934

The planning fallacy is that you make a plan, which is usually a best-case scenario. Then you assume that the outcome will follow your plan, even when you should know better.

Daniel Kahneman

Someone once said that history has more imagination than all the scenario writers in the Pentagon, and we have a lot of scenario writers here. No one ever wrote a scenario for commercial airliners crashing into the World Trade Center.

Paul Wolfowitz

I'm more into describing a scenario and I move around in that scenario.

Stephen Malkmus

I think Mike Pence figured that best case scenario he is vice president and worst case scenario he can say he tried to rein Donald Trump in for the good of the party.

Christopher Michael Cillizza

Elon Musk, Stephen Hawking, and others have stated that they think AI is an existential risk. I disagree. I don't see a risk to humanity of a 'Terminator' scenario or anything of the sort.

Ramez Naam

Whenever you have a failure or setback, you need to take a step back and find out what you can learn from the scenario. What did you do to contribute to that failure? This way, you can make sure you don't repeat that pattern.

Jillian Michaels

The worst case scenario sees the Amazon rainforest burning, huge amounts of methane being released by Siberian peat bogs and so on - by the time today's six year olds are 60, such a scenario would see global warming already out of control.

Mark Lynas

The way I see queerness now is that, best case scenario, another queer person reflects it back at you. Worst case scenario, which is what happened to me, is having people say, Well, you like Michelle Branch, so you must be gay.'

Bowen Yang

Being in a scenario where you're thinking, 'I can't do what I want to do due to the financial burden that comes with some of it,' makes you think, 'Well, I could go and do an after-dinner speech every night.' I'd probably earn more than I could in track-and-field. But that's a dangerous scenario to get yourself into.

Greg Rutherford

When you can look at failure and say, 'What is the worst case scenario,' it's not as bad as it seems.

Whitney Wolfe Herd

There has been a transition from a nuclear-annihilation scenario to an isolated-terrorist-nuclear-bomb scenario. But we're still locked into a mind-set that nuclear war would be so overwhelming that any kind of preparedness would be futile.

Irwin Redlener

Autonomous driving provides a scenario where AI can deliver smart tools for assistance in decision-making and planning to human drivers.

Fei-Fei Li

You and I both know, deep in your heart, you agree with me. And I will prove it with one hypothetical scenario: you are alone in a closet of your home. There`s a bright red button. You can push that button and presto all Negroes and Jews and all other colored people are instantly removed from the North American continent and returned to their native countries. You`d push it, wouldn`t you whitey? See? See? See? in the final analysis, you agree with me. But of course, you wouldn`t do antything to bring that scenario about, or any other scenario favorable to your Race.

Frazier Glenn Miller, Jr.

Risk is a function of how poorly a strategy will perform if the 'wrong' scenario occurs.

Michael Porter

The African Americans' story is one that seems to be a repeated commitment to a scenario for success and failure. With each failure, the blow is that much more traumatizing until finally one reaches a point where there is to some degree an internalization, skepticism, fatalism, and expectation that it isn't going to work.